Abstract : In its latest Economic Outlook report, the OECD predicted that China will be the only major economy to record positive performance in 2020 with a 1.8-percent growth.
BEIJING, Dec. 9 (Xinhua) — In its latest Economic Outlook report,
the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
predicted that China will be the only major economy to record positive
performance in 2020 with a 1.8-percent growth.
By the end of 2021, global gross domestic product (GDP) is projected
to reach pre-pandemic level, with China expected to account for over a
third of world economic expansion, according to the report released on
These heartening figures reflecting the vitality and resilience of
the Chinese economy have uplifted international agencies and foreign
experts, who believe China, with a fresh development blueprint and
unremitting efforts to forge a new growth pattern, will continue driving
global growth in the post-pandemic era.
CHINA’S OUTSTANDING REBOUND
The pandemic has inhibited investments and impeded flows of goods and
personnel, precipitating the worst recession since the Great Depression
in the 1930s.
The world economy will shrink by 4.2 percent this year as the
COVID-19 pandemic continues to exert a substantial toll on economies and
societies, according to the OECD report.
The contribution of Europe and North America to global growth, the
OECD said, will “remain smaller than their weight in the world economy.”
In the United States, the GDP is expected to contract by 3.7 percent
this year and the eurozone will witness a 7.5-percent contraction.
Under such circumstances, China’s outstanding rebound and sustained
momentum for growth have offered the world a silver lining and helped
brighten the bleak global economic landscape.
Despite a 6.8-percent year-on-year contraction in the first quarter,
the Chinese economy increased by 3.2 percent in the second quarter and
maintained a steady growth of 4.9 percent in the third quarter, showing a
“As of early autumn, almost all activities (in China) had restarted
and exceeded pre-pandemic levels in seasonally adjusted terms.
Industrial production has also risen and capacity utilization is
increasing,” the OECD said in its report.
The organization also pointed out that new COVID-19 cases reported
sporadically in China will not pose a major risk to its economy because
of its “proven tracing, testing and isolation system.”
“It appears that once again, China is driving the global economy out
of the trough,” said Margit Molnar, head of the China Desk of the OECD.
“China will stand out with its robust growth throughout our forecast
horizon,” Molnar said. “In that sense, China will likely remain a
greater contributor to global growth than it was in the couple of years
prior to the pandemic.”
China’s economic growth amid the pandemic is leading the world, and
global chief financial officers have upgraded their outlook for China’s
economy to “Modestly Improving” in the fourth quarter of the year from
its third quarter rating of “Stable,” according to a recent survey
conducted by the CNBC Global CFO Council.
Similar projections from other organizations such as the Bank of
China Research Institute and the International Monetary Fund have
highlighted the fact that China has served as a major engine of the
world economy amid the pandemic, said Xulio Rios, director of the
Observatory of Chinese Politics in Spain.
Upholding the vision of shared benefits, China has decided to speed
up a new development pattern of “dual circulation,” which is expected to
enable the world’s second largest economy to share more of its
development opportunities with the world.
The new pattern, where domestic and foreign markets can boost each
other, with the domestic market as the mainstay, does not mean a
closed-door circulation, but represents a continuation of China’s
With its per capita GDP topping 10,000 U.S. dollars and middle-income
population exceeding 400 million, China has a huge domestic market with
growing appetite for a greater variety of quality products,
technologies and services from across the world.
As the global demand has waned amid the pandemic, the steady
unleashing of the Chinese market potential will certainly provide the
most-desired business possibilities and add stronger impetus to the
stable growth of the global economy.
“China was the first country to fully recover,” said Molnar. “That
has a very big importance for the world because it means the second
biggest economy in the world has recovered. This means a huge source of
demand for all the other countries.”
“In the post-pandemic era, China will continue to be the locomotive
of global growth,” said Koh King Kee, president of Malaysia’s think tank
Center for New Inclusive Asia.
“China’s huge market and domestic demand are like a huge driving gear
to bring about the recovery and development of the world economy and
bring more opportunities to other countries and the world,” he said.
The new development pattern will also prompt China to take a more
active part in the international division of labor, and get more tightly
integrated into global industrial, supply and value chains.
Despite the pandemic-induced obstacles, China’s foreign trade of
goods totaled 29.04 trillion yuan (about 4.44 trillion U.S. dollars) in
the first 11 months, up 1.8 percent year on year, according to official
COMMITMENT TO OPENING-UP
By unveiling proposals for a stable and consistent development plan
with a pledge of further opening-up, China has injected a sense of
certainty into a turbulent world and rekindled global hope for a
long-term stable growth.
In the next five years and beyond, China will enhance the level of
opening-up, promote trade and investment liberalization and
facilitation, and strengthen the comprehensive competitiveness of
With new steps to be taken in reform and opening-up, China will
further improve its socialist market economy and basically complete the
building of a high-standard market system, and form the new institutions
of a higher-level open economy.
The new blueprint is the latest demonstration of China’s dedication to building an open economy over the years.
From the Foreign Investment Law to a shortened negative list for
foreign investment, from more pilot programs for promotion of trade in
services to the steadily eased financial market access, China’s steps in
pursuit of opening-up has never been stalled by mounting protectionism
and unilateralism amid the pandemic.
Commending China’s breakthroughs in improving business and investment
environment, Anton Moskalenkov, director of the International Relations
Office of Russia’s Agency for Strategic Initiatives, said China’s open
market, with “growing consumer demand, emerging new areas of
consumption, and rapid diversification of products,” is very appealing
to every entrepreneur.
To honor its opening-up commitment, China has rolled out such
platforms as the Belt and Road Initiative, the China International
Import Expo (CIIE) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
For example, the CIIE, whose third edition ran from Nov. 5 to 10, has
grown into a major platform for international procurements, investment
promotion, cultural exchanges and open cooperation.
“For the post-pandemic era, China has reiterated its commitment to
deeper and larger reform and opening-up, as well as to the free trade
system and multilateralism,” said Koh.
China’s commitment to sharing its market and providing the world with
quality products will “push forward economic integration” and “bring
mutual benefits to China and the world,” said the expert. Enditem
About Xinhua Silk Road
Xinhua Silk Road (en.imsilkroad.com) is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) portal. China’s silk road economic belt and the 21st century maritime silk road website, include BRI Policy, BRI Trade, BRI Investment, Belt and Road weekly, Know Belt and Road, and the integrated information services for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Source: Xinhua Headlines: Int’l agencies, experts expect China to drive global growth in post-pandemic era